Eurosceptic Turks

TURKISH EUROSCEPTICS

NICHOLAS NEWMAN

Friday, 06 October 2006

In Europe there is growing concern about the prospect of Turkey’s entry into the European Union (EU). In fact German Chancellor Merkel has said "We are fully convinced that accepting Turkey would overburden the EU politically, economically and socially and would endanger the European integration process." What has been forgotten by the European media is that there is a large growing opposition inside Turkey to Ankara’s entry into the EU by 2015.

Turkish public opinion polls regularly indicate that at least a quarter of Turks are against Turkey joining the EU. The increasing opposition to Ankara’s accession is due in part to the Turkish public becoming increasingly aware of its pitfalls. The groups opposing Turkey’s accession are the military, politicians, nationalists and clerics. The problem Turkish experts have to ask, is how significant such opposition from such groups will be in preventing Turkey’s entry to the EU?

The military, whose support is vital to Ankara succeeding in its accession plans, will have to comply with EU accession requirements, demanded by European Commission Enlargement Commissioner Ollie Rehn that the Turkish Armed Forces come under the strict control of the elected government ‘…just like in any other European democracy.’ have been angrily rejected by chief of staff Yasar Buyukanit. Since the days of Kamil Atatürk, the Army has had the constitutional right to intervene on issues concerning national security and protection of the country’s strictly secular system of government.

The armed forces have influenced policy on issues it deems a threat to the country, including those relating to Kurdish insurgency and Islamism. The Army has staged three coups between 1960 and 1980, whilst also influencing the removal of the Islam-oriented government of Necmettin Erbakan in 1997, in its efforts to maintain a secular and democratic society.

Regarding Turkish nationalists, which are rather like United Kingdom Independence Party in beliefs, Turkey is very sensitive about its sovereignty, a pride it shares with America on such matters. Since the fall of the Ottoman Empire Turkish ultra nationalists have feared that Turkey will be carved up by neighbouring powers. Observers are suggesting that it would suit the strategic and economic interests of both Russia and Iran that Ankara does not succeed in its dream of accession in 2015.

For Turks another very sensitive topic is the Armenian question. Several writers have been prosecuted for supporting the claim that there was a massacre of Armenians in the dying days of the Ottoman Empire. The most, many Turks will admit to is that a lot of people died in Armenia, not just Armenians. EU Commissioner Ollie Rehn complains that Turkey is restricting the freedom of expression. This view is regarded as hypocritical, argues Turkish Justice Minister Cemil Cicek, who contends that many European states have laws for prosecuting Holocaust deniers, like historian David Irving.

In addition to the nationalists and military another group feels strongly that joining the EU is a threat to their interests. This is a combination of o the rural poor, feudal landowners and Moslem clerics. In some ways much of rural Turkey is not unlike Ireland twenty years ago, poor and intensely religious.

Many Moslem clerics view the changes that the prosperity might bring about by Turkey’s EU accession as a threat to their power and prestige. They see Ireland and Spain, twenty years ago, deeply religious and poor countries, where the Catholic Church held sway. Now, in both countries, due to the prosperity brought about by these countries joining the EU, attendance at church has declined significantly and in both countries the Church has lost much of its power and prestige. So it is not surprising that in Poland the Catholic Church was one of the leading opponents of the accession of Poland into the EU. It looks like history is likely to repeat itself in Turkey.

Amongst some traditionalist Turks, it is quiet acceptable to assault your wife, participate in ‘honour killings’ and discriminate against women. Such people are angry that the Ankara government must clamp down on such barbaric customs as part of its conditions of entry. In an effort to sabotage such reforms to end these dreadful practices they are using the argument of religion to justify such practices. They contend that such efforts to end such traditions are part of a Christian plot to undermine traditional Moslem values. They use to support this argument the recent crack down on the use of religious symbols, like the veil, in state institutions in France and elsewhere in Europe.

If Turkey is to will achieve accession, the game will be played on two stages, in the Brussels negotiations and in the number of seats the respective pro and anti European parties will gain in parliamentary elections. The military will be watched by both sides, and the outcome will depend on how well Ankara negotiates a deal, that is to its satisfaction, with Brussels. As for the other parties, the World Bank expects the pro accession parties to increase their popularity as the positive impact of economic reforms begin to be felt in the country’s major population centres. If the EU and Ankara can come to a satisfactory deal with the military, then the ability of other opponents in Turkey to prevent the country from joining the EU will substantially weaken, improving the chances of Ankara’s accession as a new EU member state.

However, if no deal can be reached with the military over its future role, there is always plan B. Turkey continues to implement most of the reforms demanded by accession, but does becomes a junior member of the EU, with fewer rights and responsibilities. This way the Turkish Armed Forces still maintain their position as guardian of the country’s secular constitution, while the country enjoys many of the benefits from the reforms introduced in the partial accession process. The trouble with plan B Ankara is less likely gain access to the EU aid that is so necessary to modernise its economy, which is needed to liberate the rural poor from poverty and reduce the influence of religious extremists.

In summing up, it is clear that there are a number of groups opposing EU accession, consisting mainly of the military, the nationalists and clerical, which form the basis of a considerable opposition to Turkey’s entry. But, clearly it is not in the gift of the opponents in EU countries that will determine Turkey’s entry in 2015. Instead the country’s future direction will depend on what deal the Turkish Armed Forces can come to with Brussels over its future constitutional role in Turkey. If a deal can be reached with the military, Ankara will, in 2015, be welcomed as the EU’s latest member. However, if no compromise can be reached the ability of resistance groups to prevent entry into the EU may well be decisive.